What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 25th, 2024

While it’s not a set deal, the Federal Reserve does appear to be on track for a June rate cut, and following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% until then.  Additionally, the government has also avoided another shut down as a series of rushed bills had approved spending for the government by another 1.2 trillion dollars. This is good news for lending markets as the debt ceiling has previously tied up rate decisions in the past. FOMC Rate Decision Federal…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 18th, 2024

Last week’s inflation data came in at a higher rate than expected, with Price Producer Index (PPI) numbers showing more than double the expected inflation gain.With both CPI and PPI being over the target, the steadfast certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates has now taken a step back, resulting in more tamed expectations for the near future. With a mixed response from lending partners, this may end up rapidly changing in the next round of discussions with the Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell this coming week, as well as a final rate decision. Consumer Price Index Consumer prices…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 11th, 2024

With a focus on the upcoming inflation data reports with CPI and PPI this week, the previous week was very light on data. The only relevant reports released were the non-farm payroll and U.S. trade balance data releases. Job reports are showing robust hiring numbers and the trade balance remains within expectations. There appears to be to not much to fear coming from this next round of inflation data. Lending partners are reflecting this sentiment as they continue to cut rates. Non-farm Payrolls The economy created a greater-than-expected 275,000 new jobs in February, in a seemingly bullish display that could…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 4th, 2024

A number of important consumer related data reports were released last week, giving us a clearer picture on inflation impacts and the state of the economy on a broader scale. First up, looking at the First Revision of GDP numbers, we are seeing they had fallen slightly below expectations, but still showing the economy has not deflated at all as of the result of the prior years’ repeated rate hikes. With inflation trending down, this makes for a convincing argument that rate cuts are due this year. This also sets the stage for the official consumer confidence reports, revealing mounting…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 26th, 2024

A government holiday followed by an extremely light release schedule has led to a limited amount of data, with the FOMC Minutes being the only impactful report for the prior week. The Federal Reserve had stated they will continue to maintain their current stance in light of the most recent inflation data. With rates holding into the year, as a result, lending partners have started back tracking some of their recent rate cuts. Lastly, Unemployment Numbers are seen to be well within expectations. FOMC Minutes “Most” officials noted the risks of moving too quickly to cut rates and wanted to…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 20th, 2024

Last week's release of CPI and PPI resulted in slightly higher than expected inflation rates which led to speculation that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates will likely come much further in the year than anticipated. There was some suspicion that if inflation rates would continue to exceed predictions, it could result in another rate hike. Lending partners have responded in kind with the first significant increase in lending rates since the end of November. However, The Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance.  Other reports such as US Retail Sales are showing a drop, but this is…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 12th, 2024

This week is the release of Core CPI and PPI numbers for January. The only data release of note is the trade deficit and the usual unemployment reports for the prior week. The current trade deficit for the U.S. is operating precisely within expectations and correlating GDP numbers. This current week will provide further guidance for the Federal Reserve as the next release of inflation data is released. U.S. Trade Deficit The U.S. trade deficit rose slightly in December, but the annual gap still fell to the lowest level in three years and added to the economy's strong performance in…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 5th, 2024

The largest and most impactful financial data being released is as always the Federal Reserve rate decision. This time it fit well within the expectations across the broader market and lending partners, in that the Federal Reserve still remains to hold the current standing, and is showing push back on any potential rate cuts coming March when the next rate decision is planned.  Most of the economic indicators from last year and this month have added fuel to the speculation that the Federal Reserve has largely met their goals and there is a strong upside pending rate cuts.  The other…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 29th, 2024

It was an uneventful week for the data reports, as the majority of the interest waits for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision heading into the following week. One of the most notable reports is for New Home Sales, which had managed to greatly exceed the projections for the end of the year moving into January. It is an early sign that there is a surge in response to the week-to-week rate cuts we have been observing over the last two weeks. The second largest data reports come from the PCE Index and preliminary projections for the Q1 GDP statistics. It…
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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 22nd, 2024

The following week of CPI and PPI reports are typically lighter, with this week showing the same trend. There are a number of interesting interim reports that are worth noting however, including the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book which indicates the labor market has been cooling across most of the country. Following up is the Consumer Sentiment Reports, which is an excellent indicator for how the average consumer feels about their buying power, reflecting on the current economic conditions. Slower inflation, cheaper gas and a healthy economy have boosted optimism. Lastly, retail sales reports showing activity in December. Consumer Sentiment Report…
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